Name: Burn Probability

Display Field: BurnProbability

Type: Feature Layer

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Description: The annual BP was calculated as the number of times that a cell was burned and the number of iterations used to run the models. The annual BP was estimated for Colorado by using a stochastic (Monte Carlo) wildfire simulation approach with Technosylva's Wildfire Analyst software (www.WildfireAnaylst.com). A total number of 2,342,334 fires were simulated (3,200,000 if we consider those fires outside the Colorado border which were used in a buffer area around the study area to compute BP) with a mean ignition density of 8.68 fires/km2. The ignition points were spatially distributed evenly every 500 meters across the state. Only high and extreme weather conditions were used to run the single fires due to they usually burn most of the annual burned area. All fires simulations had a duration of 10 h. After simulating all the fires, some cells were not burned by any simulated fire, resulting in a BP value of zero. Some cells were non-burnable due to the associated fuel type (water, roads, towns, agricultural areas, etc.). However, the lowest BP value found in 'burnable' cells was assigned to cells where the simulated fires did not reach. The Wildfire Analyst fire simulator considered the number of times that the simulated fires burned each cell. After that, results were weighted by considering the historical fire occurrence of those fires that burned in high and extreme weather conditions. The weighting was done by assessing the relation between the annual historical fire ignition density in Colorado and the total number of simulated fires with varying input data in high and moderate weather scenarios and the historical spatial distribution of the ignition points. The probability map is derived at a 30-meter resolution. This scale of data was chosen to be consistent with the accuracy of the primary surface fuels dataset used in the assessment. While not appropriate for site specific analysis, it is appropriate for regional, county or local protection mitigation or prevention planning.

Service Item Id: a3465e3785364bbbb78a006c0c171316

Copyright Text:

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Spatial Reference: 102100  (3857)

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